World of 2025

What will the world look like in fifteen years? Whose economy will be thriving? Will the environment become healthier? Or will it take a turn for the worse? There are many different scenarios proposed for what the future can possibly hold for us and who knows which will come true. The following are possible events that is predicted from the National Intelligence Council’s (NIC) global trends review, Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed (written in November 2008).


Economy of 2025

The NIC predicts that the US will become less dominant in the world saying “that over the next two decades the multiplicity of influential actors and distrust of vast power means less room for the US to call the shots without the support of strong partnerships". It states that global wealth and economic power is shifting from West to East due to increases in oil and commodity prices, and lower costs combined with government policies that shifted the locus of manufacturing to the East. By 2025 it is expected that China will have the most impact over the world in the next 20 years than any other country. If current trends continue, by 2025 China will have the second largest economy and will be a leading military power. The NIC predicts that India probably will continue to enjoy relatively rapid economic growth and will strive for a multipolar world, and Russia will have the potential to be richer, more powerful, and more self-assured in 2025. Developments in the rest of the world, including internal developments in a number of key states—particularly China and Russia—are likely to be crucial determinants of US policy in 2025.

Climate of 2025

Climate changes will depend on region, but many will suffer from severe effects, such as water scarcity and loss of agricultural production, especially countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, according to the NIC. Agricultural losses will have a big impact by late this century. For the developing countries, this impact will be devastating since agriculture accounts for a large share of their economies.

Technology in 2025

New technology can offer alternatives for fossil fuels and means for overcoming food and water constraints; however, new energy technologies most likely will not be commercially viable and widespread by 2025. The pace of technological innovation is what matters most since the transition to new fuels will be slow. The greatest possibility for a relatively quick and inexpensive transition during this period comes from better renewable generation sources (photovoltaic and wind) and improvements in battery technology.

Odds for Conflict in 2025

Conflicts that haven’t appeared in awhile can reemerge, like over resources. Perceptions of energy scarcity will drive countries to take actions to assure their future access to energy supplies. The worst case is this could result in interstate conflicts if government leaders deem assured access to energy resources. Buildups of different countries naval capabilities can lead to increased tensions, rivalries, and counterbalancing moves.

The risk of nuclear weapon use is likely to be greater than it is today, although still remaining very low. A future use of nuclear weapons probably would bring about significant geopolitical changes as some

states would seek to establish or reinforce security alliances with existing nuclear powers and others would push for global nuclear disarmament.

-Jill Schumacher